What is recorded here?
Charney, Fjörtoft and von Neumann implement a limited-area barotropic-vorticity forecast on ENIAC, reporting four 24-hour experiments from observed 500-mb charts and analysing numerical, observational and model errors. A forecast can be treated as the evolution of a measured physical state. This work turns that idea into electronic calculations of large atmospheric patterns. It advances a simplified vorticity equation and solves a spatial equation to recover the height field, while treating the artificial regional boundary carefully. Some predicted developments agree well with observations; others fail. Coarse resolution, uncertain starting data and omitted vertical structure each matter. The paper reports that a24-hour forecast took about24hours including substantial punch-card handling, and distinguishes measured costs from proposed faster implementations. Its importance lies in making numerical prediction a concrete, testable research programme, with failures helping identify the next model. It does not claim modern operational accuracy or ownership of all later forecasting.
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Scientific scope
The experiment uses a nondivergent, quasi-geostrophic barotropic model at a chosen atmospheric level. Boundary conditions, frozen linearization, differencing and observational inputs matter. The historical forecast cases and compute time are limited demonstrations, not held-out skill for a modern full-atmosphere model. Baroclinic dynamics and later numerical forecasting systems remain separate.
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People and systems
J. G. Charney; R. Fjörtoft; J. von Neumann
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English catalogue narrative
Charney, Fjörtoft and von Neumann: test numerical forecasts of large-scale weather
Charney, Fjörtoft and von Neumann implement a limited-area barotropic-vorticity forecast on ENIAC, reporting four 24-hour experiments from observed 500-mb charts and analysing numerical, observational and model errors.
A forecast can be treated as the evolution of a measured physical state. This work turns that idea into electronic calculations of large atmospheric patterns. It advances a simplified vorticity equation and solves a spatial equation to recover the height field, while treating the artificial regional boundary carefully. Some predicted developments agree well with observations; others fail. Coarse resolution, uncertain starting data and omitted vertical structure each matter. The paper reports that a24-hour forecast took about24hours including substantial punch-card handling, and distinguishes measured costs from proposed faster implementations. Its importance lies in making numerical prediction a concrete, testable research programme, with failures helping identify the next model. It does not claim modern operational accuracy or ownership of all later forecasting.
Scientific scope
The experiment uses a nondivergent, quasi-geostrophic barotropic model at a chosen atmospheric level. Boundary conditions, frozen linearization, differencing and observational inputs matter. The historical forecast cases and compute time are limited demonstrations, not held-out skill for a modern full-atmosphere model. Baroclinic dynamics and later numerical forecasting systems remain separate.
People and systems
J. G. Charney; R. Fjörtoft; J. von Neumann