ESMM: joint click and post-click conversion modeling over impressions

What changed

Trained click and joint click–conversion objectives over all impressions using a multiplicative probability decomposition and shared embeddings, avoiding direct unstable division of separately learned small probabilities.

Scientific scope

Trained click and joint click–conversion objectives over all impressions using a multiplicative probability decomposition and shared embeddings, avoiding direct unstable division of separately learned small probabilities. The sequential click-before-conversion labeling assumption and positive click support matter. Full-impression training does not by itself certify unbiased counterfactual conversion estimates or eliminate all finite-sample selection effects; delayed feedback is explicitly outside the paper's focus. Original v1 has placeholder DOI and a2022 copyright anomaly despite its2018 arXiv identity; these are not treated as valid publication identifiers.

Evidence

The linked original sources describe the stated contribution and its evidence limits. WRS has not independently rerun the experiments or certified a proof. The sequential click-before-conversion labeling assumption and positive click support matter. Full-impression training does not by itself certify unbiased counterfactual conversion estimates or eliminate all finite-sample selection effects; delayed feedback is explicitly outside the paper's focus. Original v1 has placeholder DOI and a2022 copyright anomaly despite its2018 arXiv identity; these are not treated as valid publication identifiers.

Contributors

• Source-listed authors and technical contributors · SCIENCE: Source-listed authors or explicitly credited technical contributors for the cited versions. Family entries retain source-specific attribution; a combined list is not one original-paper byline or equal individual work. Names alone do not establish resolved identities.

• Entire Space Multi-Task Model: An Effective Approach for Estimating Post-Click Conversion Rate

Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.

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