Laskar and Gastineau: collisional trajectories in the Solar System

What changed

Numerically sampled 2501 five-billion-year orbits including lunar and relativistic effects, finding rare collisional paths.

Scientific scope

The record is the exact two-author 2009 Nature letter. Its reported one-percent subset is conditional on the sampled initial conditions and numerical model; it is not a deterministic prediction that a collision will occur, and earlier long-term integrations remain separate.

Evidence

The linked sources identify this contribution and its scope. WRS has not independently reconstructed the scientific claims. The record is the exact two-author 2009 Nature letter. Its reported one-percent subset is conditional on the sampled initial conditions and numerical model; it is not a deterministic prediction that a collision will occur, and earlier long-term integrations remain separate.

Contributors

• Jacques Laskar · SCIENCE: Named source author of the scoped work; individual effort shares are not measured.
• Mickaël Gastineau · SCIENCE: Named source author of the scoped work; individual effort shares are not measured.

• Nature paper on collisional Solar-System trajectories
• HAL record for Laskar and Gastineau 2009

Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.

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