Kermack and McKendrick: a contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics

What changed

Developed a deterministic compartmental epidemic model with susceptible, infected and removed populations, deriving threshold and final-size behavior for a single outbreak.

Scientific scope

The record is the exact first 1927 paper in the series. Later Kermack–McKendrick papers, modern SIR notation, stochastic models, parameter estimation and outbreak forecasting remain separate.

Evidence

The linked sources identify this contribution and its scope. WRS has not independently reconstructed the scientific claims. The record is the exact first 1927 paper in the series. Later Kermack–McKendrick papers, modern SIR notation, stochastic models, parameter estimation and outbreak forecasting remain separate.

Contributors

• William Ogilvy Kermack · SCIENCE: Named source author of the scoped work; individual effort shares are not measured.
• A. G. McKendrick · SCIENCE: Named source author of the scoped work; individual effort shares are not measured.

• University-hosted Kermack–McKendrick 1927 paper
• Crossref record for Kermack–McKendrick 1927

Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.

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