Hindsight Credit Assignment: future-conditioned action relevance

What changed

Rewrote value and policy-learning estimators using probabilities of earlier actions conditioned on future states or returns, weighting credit by hindsight likelihood ratios instead of temporal distance alone.

Scientific scope

Rewrote value and policy-learning estimators using probabilities of earlier actions conditioned on future states or returns, weighting credit by hindsight likelihood ratios instead of temporal distance alone. Exact identities require the appropriate conditional distributions and positivity/support assumptions; learned hindsight models add estimation error. Not general observational causal identification or unrestricted counterfactual inference.

Evidence

The linked original sources describe the stated contribution and its evidence limits. WRS has not independently rerun the experiments or certified a proof. Exact identities require the appropriate conditional distributions and positivity/support assumptions; learned hindsight models add estimation error. Not general observational causal identification or unrestricted counterfactual inference.

Contributors

• Source-listed authors and technical contributors · SCIENCE: Source-listed authors or explicitly credited technical contributors for the cited versions. Family entries retain source-specific attribution; a combined list is not one original-paper byline or equal individual work. Names alone do not establish resolved identities.

• Hindsight Credit Assignment

Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.

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