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GenCast: probabilistic weather forecasting

Contribution grade

Meteorology · Scoped scientific or research-capability contribution

Reference score14,000Provisional editorial estimate of this exact contribution; its grade is assessed separately.

What changed

Uses machine learning to generate ensemble weather forecasts and evaluates probabilistic prediction.

Scientific scope

Uses machine learning to generate ensemble weather forecasts and evaluates probabilistic prediction. Scope limitation: Conclusions are limited to the paper’s periods, variables, regions and benchmarks. WRS has not rerun the evaluation.

Evidence

Assessment uses the catalogue-linked source evidence for the stated contribution. Conclusions are limited to the paper’s periods, variables, regions and benchmarks. WRS has not rerun the evaluation.

Contributors

Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.

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