SWhat changed
Bayes’s posthumous essay developed an inverse-probability calculation, connecting observed outcomes to uncertainty about an unknown chance.
Scientific scope
Bayes’s posthumous essay developed an inverse-probability calculation, connecting observed outcomes to uncertainty about an unknown chance. Scope limitation: Richard Price communicated and introduced the essay; this entry follows the deposited Bayes authorship and does not erase Price’s role. It is one historical foundation, not sole credit for all later Bayesian statistics or a justification for arbitrary priors.
Evidence
Assessment uses the catalogue-linked source evidence for the stated contribution. Richard Price communicated and introduced the essay; this entry follows the deposited Bayes authorship and does not erase Price’s role. It is one historical foundation, not sole credit for all later Bayesian statistics or a justification for arbitrary priors.
Contributors
- Thomas Bayes · SCIENCE: Named source contributor; exact labor shares are not measured.
- LII. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S
- LII. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S — deposited bibliography
Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.
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