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Aardvark end-to-end observation-to-weather forecasting

Contribution grade

AI weather forecasting · Human-designed research method or resource

Reference score145,000Provisional editorial estimate of this exact contribution; its grade is assessed separately.

What changed

Maps heterogeneous weather observations through learned state estimation, autoregressive forecasting and local prediction modules, permitting end-to-end adaptation without numerical-model initial states at inference.

Scientific scope

Maps heterogeneous weather observations through learned state estimation, autoregressive forecasting and local prediction modules, permitting end-to-end adaptation without numerical-model initial states at inference. V1 ten-author UNet account differs from expanded v3 eleven-author ViT account; first two equal marks are explicit in v3. Independence from NWP at inference does not remove reanalysis dependence during pretraining. V1 abstract says one-degree while body reports1.41-degree grid; no unsupported exact resolution selected. Skill and baseline wins vary by variable/lead; spectral blurring and weak upper-level/short-range skill remain. No agricultural/public-health application claims.

Evidence

The linked original sources describe the stated contribution and its evidence limits. WRS has not independently rerun the experiments or certified a proof. V1 ten-author UNet account differs from expanded v3 eleven-author ViT account; first two equal marks are explicit in v3. Independence from NWP at inference does not remove reanalysis dependence during pretraining. V1 abstract says one-degree while body reports1.41-degree grid; no unsupported exact resolution selected. Skill and baseline wins vary by variable/lead; spectral blurring and weak upper-level/short-range skill remain. No agricultural/public-health application claims.

Contributors

Provisional WRS assessment, edition 2026-10-16.1. Independent expert calibration is pending. This grade does not certify correctness or assign ownership.

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