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Stommel shows that a symmetric idealized heat-and-salt convection system can admit two locally stable flow regimes, with a separating unstable equilibrium and parameter-dependent transitions. The same external conditions need not select a single circulation. Temperature and salinity change fluid density in opposing ways, and they relax at different rates. If density differences also drive exchange between two well-mixed vessels, that feedback can support either a temperature-dominated or a salinity-dominated circulation, with opposite flow directions. A third steady state is unstable. The model makes multiple equilibria and history-dependent transitions concrete enough to analyse, while explicitly stopping short of a direct description of real ocean circulation. Different parameters can leave only one stable regime. This is a contribution about a physical mechanism and its possible consequences, not a measured forecast of an Atlantic tipping threshold.
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Scientific scope
The box model uses specified temperature/salinity forcing, exchange and feedback assumptions. Multiple equilibria and their stability belong to that idealized system, not a complete global ocean circulation forecast. Parameter dependence and basin/forcing simplifications matter. Later observations, spatial models and tipping analyses receive separate credit.
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People and systems
Henry Stommel
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English catalogue narrative
Stommel: two stable circulation regimes under the same external conditions
Stommel shows that a symmetric idealized heat-and-salt convection system can admit two locally stable flow regimes, with a separating unstable equilibrium and parameter-dependent transitions.
The same external conditions need not select a single circulation. Temperature and salinity change fluid density in opposing ways, and they relax at different rates. If density differences also drive exchange between two well-mixed vessels, that feedback can support either a temperature-dominated or a salinity-dominated circulation, with opposite flow directions. A third steady state is unstable. The model makes multiple equilibria and history-dependent transitions concrete enough to analyse, while explicitly stopping short of a direct description of real ocean circulation. Different parameters can leave only one stable regime. This is a contribution about a physical mechanism and its possible consequences, not a measured forecast of an Atlantic tipping threshold.
Scientific scope
The box model uses specified temperature/salinity forcing, exchange and feedback assumptions. Multiple equilibria and their stability belong to that idealized system, not a complete global ocean circulation forecast. Parameter dependence and basin/forcing simplifications matter. Later observations, spatial models and tipping analyses receive separate credit.
People and systems
Henry Stommel