What is recorded here?
Bjerknes’s1904 programme connects weather prediction to a sufficiently observed atmospheric state and the physical laws governing its evolution. It proposes graphical or mixed numerical updates, alternating dynamical and thermodynamic calculations, with later observations used to improve the method. To predict tomorrow’s weather, first construct a picture of the atmosphere now—not just at ground level, but at different heights and over the sea. Then advance that picture using motion, conservation, state and heat relations. Bjerknes proposes separating the calculation into linked pieces and comparing predicted fields with later measurements. The article describes a research programme and its unresolved data and parameter needs, rather than presenting a working computerized forecasting service.
Source-linked catalogue note. A detailed explanatory guide has not yet been prepared for this entry.
Scientific scope
Exact target is the 1904 physical prediction/research programme in the complete 2009 scholarly English translation; German original unread and editor notes are later context. Listing seven variables/equation groups is a proposed modeling organization, not a proof of closure, existence, uniqueness, numerical stability or accurate prediction. Ocean/upper-air observations, effective friction, radiation and moisture budgets remain explicit gaps. Dynamical/thermodynamic alternation and suggested hourly/six-hour updates are proposals awaiting experience, not validated convergence or forecast-skill guarantees. Mean-scale mapping/interpolation discards detail; initial-state and model errors are not removed by determinism. Historical surface-fraction and thermodynamic claims are not adopted as modern quantitative facts. No completed operational forecast, computer implementation or claimed first-ever weather-prediction idea; earlier physical/observational work and later numerical implementations remain separate.
Read the original work
- Vilhelm Bjerknes,1904 weather-prediction programme, translated/edited by Esther Volken and Stefan Brönnimann in Meteorologische Zeitschrift18(2009),663–667
- UK Met Office library original1904Bjerknes bibliographic record
This English explanation is an editorial reading view. It does not replace the complete original work or certify its science.
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People and systems
Vilhelm Bjerknes
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English catalogue narrative
Bjerknes: weather forecasting as a physical state-evolution problem
Bjerknes’s1904 programme connects weather prediction to a sufficiently observed atmospheric state and the physical laws governing its evolution. It proposes graphical or mixed numerical updates, alternating dynamical and thermodynamic calculations, with later observations used to improve the method.
To predict tomorrow’s weather, first construct a picture of the atmosphere now—not just at ground level, but at different heights and over the sea. Then advance that picture using motion, conservation, state and heat relations. Bjerknes proposes separating the calculation into linked pieces and comparing predicted fields with later measurements. The article describes a research programme and its unresolved data and parameter needs, rather than presenting a working computerized forecasting service.
Scientific scope
Exact target is the 1904 physical prediction/research programme in the complete 2009 scholarly English translation; German original unread and editor notes are later context. Listing seven variables/equation groups is a proposed modeling organization, not a proof of closure, existence, uniqueness, numerical stability or accurate prediction. Ocean/upper-air observations, effective friction, radiation and moisture budgets remain explicit gaps. Dynamical/thermodynamic alternation and suggested hourly/six-hour updates are proposals awaiting experience, not validated convergence or forecast-skill guarantees. Mean-scale mapping/interpolation discards detail; initial-state and model errors are not removed by determinism. Historical surface-fraction and thermodynamic claims are not adopted as modern quantitative facts. No completed operational forecast, computer implementation or claimed first-ever weather-prediction idea; earlier physical/observational work and later numerical implementations remain separate.
People and systems
Vilhelm Bjerknes