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    "id": "refsdal-supernova-predicted-reappearance-2015",
    "title": "A predicted gravitationally lensed supernova image reappears",
    "summary": "After four images of supernova Refsdal were observed in 2014 behind galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, five modeling teams used existing imaging and spectroscopy to construct seven lens models and predicted an additional image. Hubble observations on 11 December 2015 revealed a new source at the predicted location, interpreted as that fifth image. Its early brightness and timing allowed a blind comparison with prior lens-model predictions. A later blinded analysis of the extended light curves reported an SX–S1 delay of 376.0 days with a 16th–84th percentile interval of approximately −5.5 to +5.6 days, using a weighted combination of four fitting methods.",
    "boundary": "This is a later image of the same explosion, not a new explosion. The seven forecasts share observational inputs and are not seven independent confirmations. In the October 2015 forecast most models predicted the peak in the first quarter of 2016; the December detection is an appearance, not the date of the peak. The early light curve constrains time delay and magnification jointly; full light-curve fitting and systematic errors including mass-sheet degeneracy and line-of-sight structure remained open. The pre-observation forecast and subsequent observation have distinct source-specific bylines. The later delay and its uncertainty depend on light-curve models, simulation-calibrated method weights and microlensing assumptions; a companion Hubble-constant inference is a separate analysis. In the v1 corner-plot figure, some short-delay labels differ from the primary delay table and figure; those values need reconciliation and are not exported.",
    "area": "Observational astrophysics",
    "topic": "Physics",
    "year": 2015,
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        "title": "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal",
        "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.04654v1",
        "date": "2015-12-15"
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        "title": "Refsdal meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223",
        "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.05750v1",
        "date": "2015-10-20"
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      {
        "id": "kelly-refsdal-delay-magnification-2023-v1",
        "title": "The Magnificent Five Images of Supernova Refsdal: Time Delay and Magnification Measurements",
        "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.06377v1",
        "date": "2023-05-10"
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      "scope": "After four images of supernova Refsdal were observed in 2014 behind galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, five modeling teams used existing imaging and spectroscopy to construct seven lens models and predicted an additional image. Hubble observations on 11 December 2015 revealed a new source at the predicted location, interpreted as that fifth image. Its early brightness and timing allowed a blind comparison with prior lens-model predictions. A later blinded analysis of the extended light curves reported an SX–S1 delay of 376.0 days with a 16th–84th percentile interval of approximately −5.5 to +5.6 days, using a weighted combination of four fitting methods. This is a later image of the same explosion, not a new explosion. The seven forecasts share observational inputs and are not seven independent confirmations. In the October 2015 forecast most models predicted the peak in the first quarter of 2016; the December detection is an appearance, not the date of the peak. The early light curve constrains time delay and magnification jointly; full light-curve fitting and systematic errors including mass-sheet degeneracy and line-of-sight structure remained open. The pre-observation forecast and subsequent observation have distinct source-specific bylines. The later delay and its uncertainty depend on light-curve models, simulation-calibrated method weights and microlensing assumptions; a companion Hubble-constant inference is a separate analysis. In the v1 corner-plot figure, some short-delay labels differ from the primary delay table and figure; those values need reconciliation and are not exported.",
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            "citation": "Refsdal meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223",
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      "scope": {
        "description": "This is a later image of the same explosion, not a new explosion. The seven forecasts share observational inputs and are not seven independent confirmations. In the October 2015 forecast most models predicted the peak in the first quarter of 2016; the December detection is an appearance, not the date of the peak. The early light curve constrains time delay and magnification jointly; full light-curve fitting and systematic errors including mass-sheet degeneracy and line-of-sight structure remained open. The pre-observation forecast and subsequent observation have distinct source-specific bylines. The later delay and its uncertainty depend on light-curve models, simulation-calibrated method weights and microlensing assumptions; a companion Hubble-constant inference is a separate analysis. In the v1 corner-plot figure, some short-delay labels differ from the primary delay table and figure; those values need reconciliation and are not exported.",
        "domain": "Observational astrophysics"
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      "sources": [
        {
          "citation": "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.04654v1"
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        {
          "citation": "Refsdal meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223",
          "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.05750v1"
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          "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.06377v1"
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      ],
      "statement": "# A predicted gravitationally lensed supernova image reappears\n\nAfter four images of supernova Refsdal were observed in 2014 behind galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, five modeling teams used existing imaging and spectroscopy to construct seven lens models and predicted an additional image. Hubble observations on 11 December 2015 revealed a new source at the predicted location, interpreted as that fifth image. Its early brightness and timing allowed a blind comparison with prior lens-model predictions. A later blinded analysis of the extended light curves reported an SX–S1 delay of 376.0 days with a 16th–84th percentile interval of approximately −5.5 to +5.6 days, using a weighted combination of four fitting methods.\n\n## Scientific scope\n\nThis is a later image of the same explosion, not a new explosion. The seven forecasts share observational inputs and are not seven independent confirmations. In the October 2015 forecast most models predicted the peak in the first quarter of 2016; the December detection is an appearance, not the date of the peak. The early light curve constrains time delay and magnification jointly; full light-curve fitting and systematic errors including mass-sheet degeneracy and line-of-sight structure remained open. The pre-observation forecast and subsequent observation have distinct source-specific bylines. The later delay and its uncertainty depend on light-curve models, simulation-calibrated method weights and microlensing assumptions; a companion Hubble-constant inference is a separate analysis. In the v1 corner-plot figure, some short-delay labels differ from the primary delay table and figure; those values need reconciliation and are not exported.\n\n## Reading status\n\nThis is a source-linked WRS catalogue note. A full explanatory guide and independent scientific reconstruction have not been completed for this entry. Read the identified original work for its complete narrative and arguments.\n\n## People and systems\n\nP. L. Kelly; S. A. Rodney; T. Treu; G. Brammer; J. M. Diego\n\nThese are the listed authors of the cited contribution sources. Paper authorship does not quantify individual effort. An incomplete list is explicitly marked; same names are not automatically merged.\n\n\n\n## Original sources\n\n- [Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.04654v1)\n- [Refsdal meets Popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1510.05750v1)\n- [The Magnificent Five Images of Supernova Refsdal: Time Delay and Magnification Measurements](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.06377v1)\n",
      "summary": "After four images of supernova Refsdal were observed in 2014 behind galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, five modeling teams used existing imaging and spectroscopy to construct seven lens models and predicted an additional image. Hubble observations on 11 December 2015 revealed a new source at the predicted location, interpreted as that fifth image. Its early brightness and timing allowed a blind comparison with prior lens-model predictions. A later blinded analysis of the extended light curves reported an SX–S1 delay of 376.0 days with a 16th–84th percentile interval of approximately −5.5 to +5.6 days, using a weighted combination of four fitting methods.",
      "title": "A predicted gravitationally lensed supernova image reappears"
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    "title": "A predicted gravitationally lensed supernova image reappears",
    "context": "Observational astrophysics",
    "track": "Source-reported experimental result or reusable measurement method",
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    "what_changed": "After four images of supernova Refsdal were observed in 2014 behind galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, five modeling teams used existing imaging and spectroscopy to construct seven lens models and predicted an additional image. Hubble observations on 11 December 2015 revealed a new source at the predicted location, interpreted as that fifth image. Its early brightness and timing allowed a blind comparison with prior lens-model predictions. A later blinded analysis of the extended light curves reported an SX–S1 delay of 376.0 days with a 16th–84th percentile interval of approximately −5.5 to +5.6 days, using a weighted combination of four fitting methods.",
    "scope": "After four images of supernova Refsdal were observed in 2014 behind galaxy cluster MACS J1149.5+2223, five modeling teams used existing imaging and spectroscopy to construct seven lens models and predicted an additional image. Hubble observations on 11 December 2015 revealed a new source at the predicted location, interpreted as that fifth image. Its early brightness and timing allowed a blind comparison with prior lens-model predictions. A later blinded analysis of the extended light curves reported an SX–S1 delay of 376.0 days with a 16th–84th percentile interval of approximately −5.5 to +5.6 days, using a weighted combination of four fitting methods. This is a later image of the same explosion, not a new explosion. The seven forecasts share observational inputs and are not seven independent confirmations. In the October 2015 forecast most models predicted the peak in the first quarter of 2016; the December detection is an appearance, not the date of the peak. The early light curve constrains time delay and magnification jointly; full light-curve fitting and systematic errors including mass-sheet degeneracy and line-of-sight structure remained open. The pre-observation forecast and subsequent observation have distinct source-specific bylines. The later delay and its uncertainty depend on light-curve models, simulation-calibrated method weights and microlensing assumptions; a companion Hubble-constant inference is a separate analysis. In the v1 corner-plot figure, some short-delay labels differ from the primary delay table and figure; those values need reconciliation and are not exported.",
    "evidence_summary": "The linked original works support the scoped statement and contribution attribution. WRS has not independently replayed experiments or reconstructed a full mathematical proof. This is a later image of the same explosion, not a new explosion. The seven forecasts share observational inputs and are not seven independent confirmations. In the October 2015 forecast most models predicted the peak in the first quarter of 2016; the December detection is an appearance, not the date of the peak. The early light curve constrains time delay and magnification jointly; full light-curve fitting and systematic errors including mass-sheet degeneracy and line-of-sight structure remained open. The pre-observation forecast and subsequent observation have distinct source-specific bylines. The later delay and its uncertainty depend on light-curve models, simulation-calibrated method weights and microlensing assumptions; a companion Hubble-constant inference is a separate analysis. In the v1 corner-plot figure, some short-delay labels differ from the primary delay table and figure; those values need reconciliation and are not exported.",
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        "title": "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal",
        "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1512.04654v1",
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