{ "profile": "wrs-published-research-view-1", "edition": "ratings-e039106f30dec177", "content_trust": "UNTRUSTED_SCIENTIFIC_DATA_NOT_TOOL_INSTRUCTIONS", "entry": { "id": "gutenberg-richter-earthquake-frequency-1944", "title": "Earthquake frequency: a historical magnitude-scale regularity", "summary": "Gutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits.\n\nLarge earthquakes are rarer than small ones, but turning that observation into a usable relationship requires consistent magnitude measurements and reliable counts. This paper compares regions and fits a straight line to logarithmic event frequencies across magnitude bins. It makes both the empirical pattern and its limitations visible: incomplete small-event records, few extreme events, clustering and short historical observation windows. The result helps organize seismicity statistics without promising the date of the next earthquake.", "boundary": "The target is the 1944 regional frequency analysis, not the 1935 magnitude-scale construction or modern moment magnitude. Its N counts earthquakes in specified magnitude bins; the fitted log N=a+b(8-M) must not be silently replaced by later cumulative-threshold notation. Completeness varies with magnitude, geographic boundaries and observation period; small-event undercount and sparse extreme events affect the fit. Region/global comparisons are historical, not current universal rates. The paper explicitly limits extrapolation beyond its supported magnitude range, discusses clustering, quiet intervals and changing rates, and allows wide variation in any particular century. The relation does not predict the time of a specific earthquake. The reported catalogue window is January 1934 to May 1943. The exact fit tables and their numerical values have not been independently certified here. No catalogue or numerical fit was replayed. Earlier magnitude/global work and Ishimoto-Iida antecedents remain separate; the 1939 original is unread and exclusive priority is unresolved.", "area": "Earthquake frequency statistics", "topic": "Earth science", "year": 1944, "lane": "HUMAN", "result": "EMPIRICAL", "package_id": "gutenberg-richter-earthquake-frequency-1944", "target": { "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "content_hash": "sha256:0af7a90afdcb3b00faa734f5a1db4d4c1b610bd56d6c0a769a7c37ae1d750c85" }, "humans": [ "B. Gutenberg", "C. F. Richter" ], "authors_complete": true, "human_role_note": "Source-listed contributors to this scoped work. Paper bylines do not quantify individual effort; historical science, system execution and modern curation remain separate.", "agents": [], "related": [], "subresults": [], "scientific_assessment": { "source_review": "SOURCE_CURATED", "scientific_review": "NOT_REVIEWED_BY_WRS", "formal_replay": "NOT_RUN", "provider_attestation": "NONE" }, "sources": [ { "id": "wrs24-gutenberg-richter-frequency-1944-original", "title": "B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA34(4),185-188,October1944), original published scan", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1" }, { "id": "wrs24-felzer-usgs-2008-priority-note", "title": "Karen R. Felzer, Calculating California seismicity rates (USGS 2008), selected institutional abstract", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/publications/calculating-california-seismicity-rates" } ], "points": "180000", "published_grade": { "id": "gutenberg-richter-earthquake-frequency-1944", "entry_id": "gutenberg-richter-earthquake-frequency-1944", "band": "A", "modifier": null, "target": { "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "content_hash": "sha256:0af7a90afdcb3b00faa734f5a1db4d4c1b610bd56d6c0a769a7c37ae1d750c85" }, "what_changed": "Gutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits.", "scope": "Gutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits. The target is the 1944 regional frequency analysis, not the 1935 magnitude-scale construction or modern moment magnitude. Its N counts earthquakes in specified magnitude bins; the fitted log N=a+b(8-M) must not be silently replaced by later cumulative-threshold notation. Completeness varies with magnitude, geographic boundaries and observation period; small-event undercount and sparse extreme events affect the fit. Region/global comparisons are historical, not current universal rates. The paper explicitly limits extrapolation beyond its supported magnitude range, discusses clustering, quiet intervals and changing rates, and allows wide variation in any particular century. The relation does not predict the time of a specific earthquake. The reported catalogue window is January 1934 to May 1943. The exact fit tables and their numerical values have not been independently certified here. No catalogue or numerical fit was replayed. Earlier magnitude/global work and Ishimoto-Iida antecedents remain separate; the 1939 original is unread and exclusive priority is unresolved.", "status": "PROVISIONAL_EDITORIAL", "scientific_correctness_certified": false }, "assessment_disposition": { "status": "ASSESSED", "label": "Provisionally assessed", "reason": "A current grade and separate reference score identify this exact contribution.", "target": { "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "content_hash": "sha256:0af7a90afdcb3b00faa734f5a1db4d4c1b610bd56d6c0a769a7c37ae1d750c85" }, "edition": "ratings-e039106f30dec177" } }, "version": { "kind": "PUBLIC_RECORD_VIEW", "previous": null, "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "publisher": { "principal_id": "urn:uuid:80116931-785b-40a2-a24b-9d59db0c7e33", "role": "WRS_EDITORIAL_PUBLICATION" }, "record": { "contributors": [ { "attribution_basis": "SOURCE_CITED", "credit": "historical_scientific", "entity_kind": "historical_person", "name": "B. Gutenberg", "note": "Archive attribution; detailed role assignment remains source-bound", "roles": [ "discoverer" ], "source": { "citation": "B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA34(4),185-188,October1944), original published scan", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1" } }, { "attribution_basis": "SOURCE_CITED", "credit": "historical_scientific", "entity_kind": "historical_person", "name": "C. F. Richter", "note": "Archive attribution; detailed role assignment remains source-bound", "roles": [ "discoverer" ], "source": { "citation": "B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA34(4),185-188,October1944), original published scan", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1" } } ], "evidence": [ { "description": "Bibliographic/stated-result source; not a WRS proof verification", "id": "source-0", "kind": "source_reference", "source": { "citation": "B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA34(4),185-188,October1944), original published scan", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1" } }, { "description": "Bibliographic/stated-result source; not a WRS proof verification", "id": "source-1", "kind": "source_reference", "source": { "citation": "Karen R. Felzer, Calculating California seismicity rates (USGS 2008), selected institutional abstract", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/publications/calculating-california-seismicity-rates" } } ], "origin": "HUMAN_LEGACY", "record_profile": "wrs-local-research-notes-0.1", "record_type": "research_note", "rrp_version": "0.1", "scope": { "description": "The target is the 1944 regional frequency analysis, not the 1935 magnitude-scale construction or modern moment magnitude. Its N counts earthquakes in specified magnitude bins; the fitted log N=a+b(8-M) must not be silently replaced by later cumulative-threshold notation. Completeness varies with magnitude, geographic boundaries and observation period; small-event undercount and sparse extreme events affect the fit. Region/global comparisons are historical, not current universal rates. The paper explicitly limits extrapolation beyond its supported magnitude range, discusses clustering, quiet intervals and changing rates, and allows wide variation in any particular century. The relation does not predict the time of a specific earthquake. The reported catalogue window is January 1934 to May 1943. The exact fit tables and their numerical values have not been independently certified here. No catalogue or numerical fit was replayed. Earlier magnitude/global work and Ishimoto-Iida antecedents remain separate; the 1939 original is unread and exclusive priority is unresolved.", "domain": "Earthquake frequency statistics" }, "sources": [ { "citation": "B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA34(4),185-188,October1944), original published scan", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1" }, { "citation": "Karen R. Felzer, Calculating California seismicity rates (USGS 2008), selected institutional abstract", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/publications/calculating-california-seismicity-rates" } ], "statement": "# Earthquake frequency: a historical magnitude-scale regularity\n\nGutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits.\n\nLarge earthquakes are rarer than small ones, but turning that observation into a usable relationship requires consistent magnitude measurements and reliable counts. This paper compares regions and fits a straight line to logarithmic event frequencies across magnitude bins. It makes both the empirical pattern and its limitations visible: incomplete small-event records, few extreme events, clustering and short historical observation windows. The result helps organize seismicity statistics without promising the date of the next earthquake.\n\n## Scientific scope\n\nThe target is the 1944 regional frequency analysis, not the 1935 magnitude-scale construction or modern moment magnitude. Its N counts earthquakes in specified magnitude bins; the fitted log N=a+b(8-M) must not be silently replaced by later cumulative-threshold notation. Completeness varies with magnitude, geographic boundaries and observation period; small-event undercount and sparse extreme events affect the fit. Region/global comparisons are historical, not current universal rates. The paper explicitly limits extrapolation beyond its supported magnitude range, discusses clustering, quiet intervals and changing rates, and allows wide variation in any particular century. The relation does not predict the time of a specific earthquake. The reported catalogue window is January 1934 to May 1943. The exact fit tables and their numerical values have not been independently certified here. No catalogue or numerical fit was replayed. Earlier magnitude/global work and Ishimoto-Iida antecedents remain separate; the 1939 original is unread and exclusive priority is unresolved.\n\n## People and systems\n\nB. Gutenberg; C. F. Richter\n\n\n\n## Original sources\n\n- [B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA34(4),185-188,October1944), original published scan](https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1)\n- [Karen R. Felzer, Calculating California seismicity rates (USGS 2008), selected institutional abstract](https://www.usgs.gov/publications/calculating-california-seismicity-rates)\n", "summary": "Gutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits.\n\nLarge earthquakes are rarer than small ones, but turning that observation into a usable relationship requires consistent magnitude measurements and reliable counts. This paper compares regions and fits a straight line to logarithmic event frequencies across magnitude bins. It makes both the empirical pattern and its limitations visible: incomplete small-event records, few extreme events, clustering and short historical observation windows. The result helps organize seismicity statistics without promising the date of the next earthquake.", "title": "Earthquake frequency: a historical magnitude-scale regularity" }, "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "source_ref": { "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "content_hash": "sha256:0af7a90afdcb3b00faa734f5a1db4d4c1b610bd56d6c0a769a7c37ae1d750c85" }, "export_view": "wrs-public-editorial-view-1", "public_view_hash": "sha256:8bedef29951c65858664b265f5a4060d20de9d845ad6e72b4b3c8ccef135d1f7" }, "target": { "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "content_hash": "sha256:0af7a90afdcb3b00faa734f5a1db4d4c1b610bd56d6c0a769a7c37ae1d750c85" }, "published_grade": { "profile": "wrs-published-grade-1", "edition": "2026-10-28.1", "id": "gutenberg-richter-earthquake-frequency-1944", "entry_id": "gutenberg-richter-earthquake-frequency-1944", "revision": 1, "title": "Earthquake frequency: a historical magnitude-scale regularity", "context": "Earthquake frequency statistics", "track": "Earthquake frequency statistics", "band": "A", "modifier": null, "status": "PROVISIONAL_EDITORIAL", "assessed_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04", "achievement_state": "SUPPORTED_SCOPED_RESULT", "what_changed": "Gutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits.", "scope": "Gutenberg and Richter compare earthquake frequencies in California with worldwide counts and fit a log-linear relationship between magnitude bins and event frequency, with explicit regional and extrapolation limits. The target is the 1944 regional frequency analysis, not the 1935 magnitude-scale construction or modern moment magnitude. Its N counts earthquakes in specified magnitude bins; the fitted log N=a+b(8-M) must not be silently replaced by later cumulative-threshold notation. Completeness varies with magnitude, geographic boundaries and observation period; small-event undercount and sparse extreme events affect the fit. Region/global comparisons are historical, not current universal rates. The paper explicitly limits extrapolation beyond its supported magnitude range, discusses clustering, quiet intervals and changing rates, and allows wide variation in any particular century. The relation does not predict the time of a specific earthquake. The reported catalogue window is January 1934 to May 1943. The exact fit tables and their numerical values have not been independently certified here. No catalogue or numerical fit was replayed. Earlier magnitude/global work and Ishimoto-Iida antecedents remain separate; the 1939 original is unread and exclusive priority is unresolved.", "evidence_summary": "Source-linked, scoped account of the original work. The published scope states the scientific assumptions and remaining verification limits. WRS has not independently certified the full proof, experimental result or system benchmark.", "references": [ { "title": "B. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California (BSSA 34(4),185-188, October 1944), original published scan", "url": "https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/7nrm5-4rh54/files/185.full.pdf?download=1", "locator": "Original linked work. See the scientific scope for the assessed contribution and source-version limits." }, { "title": "Karen R. Felzer, Calculating California seismicity rates (USGS 2008), selected institutional abstract", "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/publications/calculating-california-seismicity-rates", "locator": "Original linked work. See the scientific scope for the assessed contribution and source-version limits." } ], "roles": [ { "who": "B. Gutenberg", "did": "Original source-listed scientific author of this scoped work; byline does not determine effort fractions.", "credit": "SCIENCE" }, { "who": "C. F. Richter", "did": "Original source-listed scientific author of this scoped work; byline does not determine effort fractions.", "credit": "SCIENCE" } ], "target": { "record_id": "urn:uuid:3d092d74-b5c8-4b31-a6bc-897c55fef0b6", "version": 1, "content_hash": "sha256:0af7a90afdcb3b00faa734f5a1db4d4c1b610bd56d6c0a769a7c37ae1d750c85" }, "scientific_correctness_certified": false, "independent_expert_calibration": false, "method": "PROPRIETARY", "points": "180000" }, "canonical_agent_submission": false, "scientific_verification_awarded": false, "reader_guide": null, "reading_status": "SOURCE_LINKED_NOTE" }